南海トラフ地震っていつごろ来るの?津波や被害想定の噂は?

南海トラフ巨大地震が直撃しそうな範囲についての日本列島の地図の絵が書いてある画像

みなさん、こんにちは。

 

我々が住んでいる日本は一般的に地震大国なんて呼んだりしますが、そんな地震大国であるこの国で今もっとも関心度の高い地震といえば…

 

そうです、「南海トラフ地震」ですよね。

 

残念なことに『いつ頃来るであろう』なんて、当たり前ですが誰にもわかりません。

 

だからこそ余計に心配になってしまうし、

 

「ほんの少しでも情報が欲しい!」

 

 と思うのが我々日本人としての心情ですよね。

 

ということで今回は、

 

「津波などが来たら、被害想定はどの程度なのか?」
「南海トラフ地震っていつごろに来そうなのか?」

 

このふたつにフォーカスを当てて、さっそく見ていってみましょう。

 

※ 今回の記事の被害想定の範囲は、日本政府が発表しているものの中でも最悪のケースと言われているものを基としているため、南海トラフ地震と聞くと「誰しもがマグニチュード9前後の地震が起きるんでしょ」と一見思われがちですが、この数値以上、またはこの数値以下の規模での地震が南海トラフ地震として起きる可能性も充分にありうるということをご了解の上で閲覧ください。

そもそも南海トラフ地震ってどの辺りの地震のことなのか

まずは基本的なところの説明からしていきましょう。

 

南海トラフとは、四国の南側の海から静岡県の南側の海までつらなっている海底4000mくらいにある深い溝のことを言います。

 

大陸側にあるユーラシアプレートと、北西にあるフィリピン海プレートとが衝突して、そこから下側に沈むように下り込んでいる沈み込み帯なんですが、

 

ココは かなりの巨大な地震が発生しやすい帯 であり、たいへん活発に動いている箇所でもあるようなんです。

 

もしも本当に予想されていた通りであるマグニチュード9前後クラス南海トラフ地震 が来たとしたら…

 

高知県静岡県では震度7前後

 

大阪府だと震度6強

 

京都府兵庫県福岡県などでは震度6弱

 

その他、上記の近くの地域でも大きな被害が予想されています。

 

と、こんなデータで推測されていますが、以前の日本で起こった大規模な地震はどうだったでしょうか?

 

阪神淡路大震災の時は、大阪府京都府では震度5弱でした。

 

東日本大震災の時は、東北地方の辺りでの震度はおよそ6強です。

 

これはつまり、
東日本大震災よりも大きな揺れが我々を襲ってくることになりそう!
ということなんです。

 

噂では「マグニチュード10クラスの地震も考えられる」なんて話もありますが、万が一マグニチュード10なんて地震が来たら、東日本大震災32倍のエネルギーで地震が起きることになります。

 

もし上記のレベルの地震が来たとなると、20分~1時間ぐらいのあいだ大きな揺れがずっと続くという、なんとも最強に最悪な地震となる可能性が非常に高いようです。

 

そう考えると、南海トラフ地震って日本の歴史から見てもかなりの恐ろしい天災になりうる可能性が大きいということなんです。

 

実際に地震が来たら、
こういった物↓も必需品になってきそうですよね。

▶ 画像 

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津波などが来たら、被害想定はどの程度なのか?

南海トラフ地震での想定されている死者数はというと、ザッと見積もっても約33万人とも言われていますし、

 

倒壊する家屋にいたってもだいたい230~240万世帯ぐらいではないか、とも言われています。

 

この33万人という数は、東日本大震災の約20倍近くの数値 となってきます。
どう考えても、「ここ近年での一番恐ろしい結末を迎えるであろう天災」という位置づけです。

 

特に静岡県での死者の想定数は、最大で約11万人弱とされていますが、どうやらその中の 大半は津波 によるものだとも言われているようです。

 

単純計算で見積もっても、静岡県民の約35人に1人は、亡くなられる という計算になってきますね。

 

そしてなんと、津波の高さ にいたっては最大で 32メートル とも予想されています。

 

これは 東日本大震災での最大21.1メートルを記録した豊岡町よりも全然高い数字 となっています。

 

静岡県高知県などでは数十メートルといった超巨大規模の津波が予想され、堤防なんてあっけなく乗り越えて住宅街のかなり多くの世帯が被害に襲われることとなるでしょう。

 

ちなみに死者だけでなく「負傷者」にいたってはもっと膨大な60万人といった数となるでしょう、とも予想されています。

 

これだけの人数が一気に病院になだれ込んでくると、リアルに『救える命も救えない』なんて状況になるのでないでしょうか。

 

…そんな懸念が絶えません。
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結局、南海トラフ地震はいつ来そうなのか?

一部では、
今後10年後に、20%前後程度
今後20年後に、40~50%前後程度
今後30年後に、60~70%前後程度
今後50年後に、90%前後程度
などとも言われています。

 

安直に上記の数値だけで判断しようとすると

 

「それマジ!?メチャクチャ高確率で自分が生きてるうち南海トラフ地震が来ちゃうじゃん!」

 

…と誰もがそうとう焦ってしまいそうな見解ですよね。

 

あと、大きな特徴のひとつとして、南海地方や東海地方では、その他のエリアの大地震と比べると地震がよく起きる「季節」というものがあると言われていますが、それは「冬」です。

 

あくまでもデータ的なものなので一概に何とも言えませんが、極寒の寒い時期にもしも家が潰れてしまったら…と考えると本当に大変なことになってしまいますね。

 

そしてなおかつ、もうひとつの特徴があります。

 

過去に起こった歴史や地震のデータから

 

『東側から西側に向かって地震が起きやすい』

 

ということもわかっていることのひとつです。
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経済的な被害額は?

南海トラフ地震で大きな被害に遭うであろう地域は、いわゆる日本の中でも工業出荷額とされるものの3分の2ほどがその地域に固まっており、莫大な経済的被害額が予想され、その被害総額はなんと…

220兆3000億円!

と言われています!

なんとも想像を絶するとてつもない金額ですよね!!

 

あまりにスゴ過ぎて、スゴさが全然わからなくなってきちゃいそうなくらいスゴイです(笑)

 

この金額は 東日本大震災の時の約10倍以上 なんです。

 

ちなみにこの被害総額には33万人というスゴイ人数の人間の経済的効果の喪失する部分はまったくもって 含まれていない んです。これっぽっちも。

 

そこも踏まえるとなると、実質的にはもっともっと超長期的で、なおかつもっともっと莫大すぎる被害になると考えられます。

 

そして、そんな「ただでさえ莫大すぎる被害になりそう」なのに、そこに更に追い討ちもかかりそうなんです。
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余震の危険性は?誘発されて違う地震も?

南海トラフ地震の余震は、なんと震度6強とも言われているようです。

 

「余震で津波が起こってしまう」なんてことも考えられますよね。

 

その余震で起こるであろう津波も小さいものではなさそうです。

 

そんな中、もっと怖いのが余震だけではおさまらないかもしれない、ということです。

 

いくつものプレートが密集している地震大国の日本ですから、もしも南海トラフ地震が起きたことで、まわりのプレートに影響が出てくればそれはそれはかなりの広い範囲で誘発地震が起きてしまう可能性も普通に考えられなくはない事でしょう。

 

① 静岡県から九州まで続いている【中央構造線】という名前の活断層

 

② 滋賀県にある日本最大の湖である琵琶湖に位置する【琵琶湖西岸断層帯】
例えば上記の帯が誘発されれば、別の地震としてマグニチュード7〜8レベルの地震が起きてしまうかもしれません。

 

もし本当にそんな誘発地震が起きてしまうと、日本はまともに復興するのに何十年もかかってしまうかもしれないですよね〜。

 

なんとも恐ろしい話ですが、万が一誘発地震まで来てしまえば実際に起こり得ることです。
[ad]

今回のまとめ

常々いつ起こるかと話題に上がる南海トラフ地震は、パーセンテージだけで見るとそうそうすぐには来そうもないですが…

 

とは言いつつもそのうち来ちゃうかもしれません。

 

そんな「いったいいつ来るのか」なんて言っている今のうちに、災害にあった時の為の準備をしておくのが得策ですよね。

 

もし南海トラフ地震と言われる地震が起きてしまった時も、その地震だけでなく余震や誘発地震を連れて来る場合もあるので常に気を配って過ごしましょう。

 

もし被災した場合などの避難場所だったり連絡の取り方などなど、もしものことを考えて事前に決めておいて、

 

家族や友人たちと情報共有しておきたいところですね。

 

以上「南海トラフ地震っていつごろ来るの?津波や被害想定の噂は?」という記事でした。

 

最後まで読んでいただき、ありがとうございます。

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